Friday, October 16, 2009

Bull market or just bull?

"Foundations for a bull market are now as strong as they've been in years,
though an early and sustained uptrend can't be taken for granted"
"I think it is pretty well conceded that we have reached or passed the bottom of
this depression and from now on can look to gradually improving business"

Do these quotes from news reports sound familiar?

They probably should. Lately we've been hearing them as regular as clockwork. However, these particular ones aren't from last weeks papers or your favourite business show, they're from the Wall Street Journal back in October, 1930

This is not 1930 but back then, a few good months months lured investors back into the market, just like they're doing now. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it tells us that the optimism apparent the year after the 1929 stockmarket crash soon proved woefully premature.

Back in 2009 and the Australian sharemarket has risen by more than 50 per cent since it bottomed in March. Even more incredibly, the troubled US market is up almost 50 per cent! What is driving these gains?

There are concerns we're becoming a bit complacent – and in some cases, even irrationally exuberant. Cautious optimism beats irrational exuberance in any market, but especially this one.

(source: Sydney Morning Herald)


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Parag said...

Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence and expectations that strong results will continue. It's difficult to predict consistently when the trends in the market will change. Part of the difficulty is that psychological effects and speculation may sometimes play a large role in the markets.
Personal finance

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